The science is strictly ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS POLLUTION that causes GLOBAL HEATING (over 90% to the oceans), GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION and GLOBAL SURFACE WARMING.
It’s mainly caused by FOSSIL FUEL greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and methane)
which is the sole cause of OCEAN ACIDIFICATION.
The single most important finding of the science is that for the 1.5°C AND the 2°C limits global emissions decline by 2025 IPCC AR6 (IPCC Chair)
VIDEO The Royal Society, Climate Change in 60 seconds
VIDEO National Geographic, Causes & effects of climate change in 3 mins
CLIMATE SYSTEM
The science is that of climate system change.
The largest climate system component by far is the oceans, which ultimately determine the climate and climate change.
Practically all the biosphere makes up the climate system, even the rocks influence climate.
The oceans constitute 90% of the habitable Earth (‘planet”). Earth is Ocean planet.
CLIMATE CHANGE CAUSE
The cause of climate system change is atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution, and the pollution is constant.
This is by the enhanced greenhouse effect (explained below)
GREENHOUSE GASES
The main GHGs are CO2, methane and nitrous oxide.
They are long-lived (in the atmosphere) trace gases (tiny atmospheric concentrations)
Because they are long-lived, their emissions build up in the atmosphere; they accumulate.
Because they are highly cumulative and long lasting, there is always an extra amount of warming (‘in the pipe’) that makes future committed warming higher than today’s warming
Because they are trace gases, they have to be very powerful
GHG atmospheric pollution emissions are mainly from fossil fuel combustion, which is constant and is increasing-or rather being increased.
Fossil fuel atmospheric CO2 pollution is the sole cause of ocean acidification
RADIATIVE FORCING
Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases give rise to increasing radiative forcing
The total net amount of heat energy added to the climate system is called radiative forcing
Atmospheric GHG pollution causes ocean heating first, as the heat from GHG emissions goes straight to the oceans (measured and expressed as ocean heat content.
Over 90% of heat from GHG emissions goes straight to ocean heating, which causes ocean disruption (heat, deoxygenation and acidification)
GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming is the relatively small amount of GHG heat that gives rise to global average surface warming, measured as the average (ocean & land surface) temperature increase and averaged over a year.
Global warming is accelerating, short-term at present as well as long term.
Global warming causes climate change, variability and climate disruption with extreme weather events, which is how the world is now experiencing increasing atmospheric GHG pollution.
Climate system science has determined global warming danger limits, which until 2018 was 2°C.
Since the 2018 IPCC 1.5°C Report, the established limit is 1.5°C
For both 1.5°C and 2°C limits science has now determined that emissions decline on an immediate basis, now- by 2025 ( IPCC AR6 ). (IPCC Chair)
VIDEO The Royal Society, Climate Change in 60 seconds
VIDEO National Geographic, Causes & effects of climate change in 3 mins
INERTIA
The climate system is characterized by its enormous inertia, which implies enormous momentum. This is mainly due to the very long atmospheric life-time of CO2 and also to ocean thermal inertia.
Global warming will last over a thousand years, as will ocean heat, and sea level rise
Slowing climate change is like slowing the Titanic.
Inertias contribute to unavoidably committed future higher degrees of warming and climate change (commitment to more future warming)
FEEDBACK
Amplifying (+ve) feed-back to global warming is the single most dangerous worst impact of global warming, and will increase with temperature and with time.
It is an inevitable effect of unmitigated global warming.
By global warming feedback effects global warming will increase global warming, in deadly feedback loops.
For policy making it is essential to apply committed warming- not today’s warming in estimating mitigation, as has always been the case.
The science makes it clear that constantly increasing atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse emissions is inherently catastrophically dangerous to all future life (land and oceans).
More details on above
FOSSIL FUELS
The fossil industry emits CO2 and methane and air pollution aerosols.
The environmental health issue of fossil fuels is toxic air pollution every day and atmospheric GHG pollution practically forever.
ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT
It’s well known that global climate change is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs). They do so by the enhanced greenhouse effect.
If it were not for atmospheric GHGs Earth’s average surface temperature would drop from 15 °C to roughly -18°C. That’s a 33 °C difference—and Earth would be a lifeless frozen planet.
Atmospheric GHGs are present in tiny amounts (parts per million and per billion of air). Therefore they are extremely powerful heat radiators.
SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Sources can be simply seen as two main general categories – industrial age energy production and industrial age food production.
Schematic of the many greenhouse gas emissions effects
The big three GHGs are classified as long-lived GHGs, due to their long atmospheric lifetime.
Fossil air pollution, by toxic emissions, is well known as a cause and aggravation of asthma and chronic respiratory disease. It is also a cause of many chronic diseases.
Cooling Aerosols
Some air pollution emissions are cooling (acid aerosols).
Warming aerosols
Global warming aerosol emissions include black carbon (soot) from fossil fuels, which is warming.
The net effect of aerosol emissions is cooling
Aerosols are emitted from fossil fuel combustion, as minute particles suspended in the air.
They cause air pollution.
Sulfate aerosols are fossil fuel emissions (air pollution) that are cooling, by reflecting away solar energy from the planet. Black carbon (soot) aerosols are warming.
Acceleration of global warming by air pollution measures
For decades, fossil fuel cooling air pollution aerosols have offset much of the fossil fuel warming of CO2 emissions.
Since 2005 China (far the largest emitter) has been reducing its air pollution, which has reduced the air pollution, cooling sulfate aerosols. The result has been a recent boost in global warming acceleration.
Methane
Methane is a shorter lasting, long lived GHG than CO2. It is a powerful GHG emitted by the natural gas industry as fugitive emissions (leaks) and coal mining.
Many climate affecting emissions from fossil fuels
Fossil fuel combustion results in emissions of CO2, methane, nitrous oxide (small amount), surface ozone, air pollutant black carbon (soot) and air pollutant cooling aerosols.
Now we have microplastic air pollution, which could be the worst of all.
The carbon cycle and climate change
The carbon cycle we are taught a carbon re-cycle that only stores carbon for a while, then returns it to the atmosphere.
The carbon cycle can only truly sink carbon (removing it from the carbon cycle) extremely slowly- hence some of our CO2 emissions lasts many 1000s of years.
Another reason for momentum and catastrophic danger of emitting GHGs, is that many chain reactions are set in motion of many interacting reinforcing impacts and many feedbacks.
The three main greenhouse gases (mainly CO2) naturally produced by planet Earth that are the planet’s thermostat, swinging the climate in and out of ice ages and warm inter-glacials.
We know this from the 800,000 year ice core
Right now we are in a warm period
The main greenhouse emissions produced by our fossil fuel industrial age are the exact same three greenhouse gases- carbon dioxide (CO2) methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), that swing the planet in and out of ice ages
We emit several others as well constantly, in smaller amounts.
Then consider that we intentionally try to burn the most fossil fuels that we can to constantly increase our fossil fuel energy output, which we call ’economic growth’.
Constant economic growth has to constantly increase our global CO2 emissions, which has to constantly increase radiative forcing (planetary heating) and ocean acidification (CO2 emissions).
We no longer have to do this, because clean renewable energy sources can far more than replace all the fossil fuel the world uses.
Mitigation involves converting all world energy off fossil fuels onto 100% clean renewables.
Feedbacks
Climate change science is all about feedbacks.
Dangerous climate change is all about +ve amplifying feedbacks.
This is multiple amplifying feedbacks that can lead to runaway global climate change AND ocean acidification
1. Fast (reacting) feedbacks There are +ve and -ve fast feedbacks that act almost immediately the climate system is forced (warmed heated).
The largest of these amplifying feedbacks is water vapor (a GHG) which increases with warming.
2. Slow (reacting) feedbacks There are very large sources of slow feedbacks that take of warming to respond- by emitting GHGS.
These are loss of ice sheet albedo cooling and planetary emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) – both in response to global warming.
Catastrophic climate system danger
The greatest global warming danger is the many positive amplifying feedbacks.
Forcing (heating up) the climate system is inherently catastrophically dangerous because of the many very large positive amplifying feedbacks.
Climate Emergency Science – Greenhouse Gas Pollution
Extreme danger of constant emissions
The fact that they are all ‘long lived greenhouse gases’ , meaning long lasting in the atmosphere (IPCC calls these 3 main GHGs long-lived) or persistent in the atmosphere makes them more dangerous because they are cumulative in the atmosphere over time, so long as they are emitted.
CO2 is the most persistent. A simple climate model shows twenty per cent of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere lasts for 1000 years. Nitrous oxide emitted will last for at least 100 years. They are therefore extremely persistent and cumulative.
The fact is that by the nature of their industrial sources for goods and services, they are constantly emitted – making them even more dangerous.
We have therefore proven by the basic science of the greenhouse gases and simple logic that constantly emitting greenhouse gases is extremely dangerous.
Of course the gases are not inherently dangerous so long as they are in a stable safe atmospheric concentration; we need them in the right amount in the atmosphere to survive. It is the industrial services and activities that constantly emit the GHGs. that is the great danger.
There have been natural large increases in atmospheric GHGs that have resulted in extinction events wiping out most of life. We know an increase in CO2 and methane has been behind several of these massive extinctions.
More on the GHGs
Each greenhouse gas has a particular quality that increases the danger of its emission.
CO2 Carbon dioxide is regarded as lasting in the atmosphere for a mean of 200 years. However, it is extremely persistent because 20% of emissions last in the atmosphere for 1000 (one thousand) years.
CH4 (Methane) lasts in the atmosphere for 12 years, but the emissions of methane carry on warming longer than 12 years. This is because methane disappears over 12 years because it is converted to other greenhouse gases, notably water vapor and carbon dioxide.
Methane is an extremely potent global warming gas. Its global warming effect (global warming potential) is 100 times that of carbon dioxide for 10 years after emission and 70 times that of carbon dioxide for 20 years after its emission.
N2O Nitrous oxide is extremely persistent in the atmosphere lasting at least 100 years. Over this period of time its global warming effect is 300 times that of carbon dioxide.
These are the three main global warming greenhouse gases being constantly emitted by fossil fuel industrialized civilization. Industrial civilization emits other greenhouse gases too.
These are ground level (tropospheric) ozone (O3) and a long list of human-made chemicals, most of which are halocarbons.
Tropospheric Ground level ozone is a result of fossil fuel air pollution. It is formed by a chemical reaction in the air catalyzed by heat and sunlight, and therefore its concentration increases with global warming.
It is toxic to plant health as well as to human health. As a result, the increased concentration of ground-level ozone with global warming will damage agricultural crops.
It will also reduce the capacity of planetary vegetation to take up carbon dioxide from the air, and this is projected to constitute a significant carbon feedback (by which global warming gives rise to more warming).
Halocarbons (called F-gases by IPCC) Although these human-made synthetic greenhouse-gas industrial chemicals are present in the atmosphere at the smallest concentration of all greenhouse gases, they include the most potent global warming and the longest lasting of all greenhouse gases.
Industrial emissions of all long-lived (long lasting) greenhouse gases must stop because of the particular dangerous qualities of each, as well as their cumulative property in general.
NET ZERO The popular buzz words today are net zero emissions. They are imprecise and allows the continued combustion of fossil fuels. Mitigation requires ZERO CARBON COMBUSTION
No fossil burning or biomass burning (burning of wood).
Oct 2020 FoE Net Zero Fraud
We are locked in to 2.4°C equilibrium warming by radiative forcing atmospheric CO2 equivalent (all long-lived GHGs together, published annually by NOAA’s AGGI (Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Index), as well as by radiative forcing which are better guides than global warming climate change assessment .
Also by James Hansen et al. Nov. 2023, 2.4°C ‘Global warming in the pipeline’
Climate change science Resources
2018 VIDEO John Holdren Why climate change is climate disruption, we are beyond dangerous climate interference, and have to prevent catastrophic climate disruption
Changing the chemistry of the atmosphere, expert video covers climate change science, VIDEO Holmes Hummel